Managerial Economics Advanced
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 1
Qualitative Forecasts
• Survey Techniques
– Planned Plant and Equipment Spending – Expected Sales and Inventory Changes – Consumers’ Expenditure Plans
• Opinion Polls
– Business Executives – Sales Force – Consumer Intentions
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 2
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 3
Time-Series Analysis
• Secular Trend
– Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data
• Cyclical Fluctuations
– Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction
• Seasonal Variation
– Regularly Occurring Fluctuations
• Irregular or Random Influences
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 4
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 5
Trend Projection
• Linear Trend: St = S0 + b t b = Growth per time period • Constant Growth Rate St = S0 (1 + g)t g = Growth rate • Estimation of Growth Rate lnSt = lnS0 + t ln(1 + g)
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 6
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 7
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 8
Seasonal Variation
Ratio to Trend Method
Actual Ratio = Trend Forecast Seasonal Average of Ratios for = Adjustment Each Seasonal Period Adjusted Forecast Trend = Forecast Seasonal Adjustment
Slide 9
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
PowerPoint Slides Prepared
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 1
Qualitative Forecasts
• Survey Techniques
– Planned Plant and Equipment Spending – Expected Sales and Inventory Changes – Consumers’ Expenditure Plans
• Opinion Polls
– Business Executives – Sales Force – Consumer Intentions
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 2
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 3
Time-Series Analysis
• Secular Trend
– Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data
• Cyclical Fluctuations
– Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction
• Seasonal Variation
– Regularly Occurring Fluctuations
• Irregular or Random Influences
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 4
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 5
Trend Projection
• Linear Trend: St = S0 + b t b = Growth per time period • Constant Growth Rate St = S0 (1 + g)t g = Growth rate • Estimation of Growth Rate lnSt = lnS0 + t ln(1 + g)
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 6
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 7
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Slide 8
Seasonal Variation
Ratio to Trend Method
Actual Ratio = Trend Forecast Seasonal Average of Ratios for = Adjustment Each Seasonal Period Adjusted Forecast Trend = Forecast Seasonal Adjustment
Slide 9
PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.
Copyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
PowerPoint Slides Prepared