The Usefulness of Accounting Estimates for Predicting Cash Flows and Earnings
The Usefulness of Accounting Estimates for Predicting Cash Flows and Earnings
Baruch Lev* New York University Siyi Li University of Illinois Theodore Sougiannis University of Illinois and ALBA
January, 2009
*
Contact information: Baruch Lev (blev@stern.nyu.edu), Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012. The authors are indebted to the editor and reviewers of the Review of Accounting Studies for suggestions and guidance, and to Louis Chan, Ilia Dichev, John Hand, James Ohlson, Shiva Rajgopal, and Stephen Ryan for helpful comments, as well as to participants of seminars at Athens University of Economics and Business, London Business School, Penn State University, Purdue University, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, University of Texas at Dallas, Washington University in St. Louis, the joint Columbia–NYU Seminar, the 16th Financial Economics and Accounting Conference, the 2006 AAA FARS Midyear Meeting, and the 2008 AAA Annual Meeting.
1
ABSTRACT
Estimates and projections are embedded in most financial statement items. These estimates potentially improve the relevance of financial information by providing managers the means to convey to investors forward-looking, inside information (e.g., on future collections from customers via the bad debt provision). On the other hand, the quality of financial information is compromised by: (i) the increasing difficulty of making reliable forecasts in a fastchanging, often turbulent economy, and (ii) the frequent managerial misuse of estimates to manipulate financial data. Given the ever-increasing prevalence of estimates in accounting data, whether these opposing forces result in an improvement in the quality of financial information or not is among the most fundamental issues in accounting. We examine in this study the contribution of accounting estimates embedded in accruals to the quality of financial information, as reflected by their usefulness in the prediction of
Baruch Lev* New York University Siyi Li University of Illinois Theodore Sougiannis University of Illinois and ALBA
January, 2009
*
Contact information: Baruch Lev (blev@stern.nyu.edu), Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012. The authors are indebted to the editor and reviewers of the Review of Accounting Studies for suggestions and guidance, and to Louis Chan, Ilia Dichev, John Hand, James Ohlson, Shiva Rajgopal, and Stephen Ryan for helpful comments, as well as to participants of seminars at Athens University of Economics and Business, London Business School, Penn State University, Purdue University, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, University of Texas at Dallas, Washington University in St. Louis, the joint Columbia–NYU Seminar, the 16th Financial Economics and Accounting Conference, the 2006 AAA FARS Midyear Meeting, and the 2008 AAA Annual Meeting.
1
ABSTRACT
Estimates and projections are embedded in most financial statement items. These estimates potentially improve the relevance of financial information by providing managers the means to convey to investors forward-looking, inside information (e.g., on future collections from customers via the bad debt provision). On the other hand, the quality of financial information is compromised by: (i) the increasing difficulty of making reliable forecasts in a fastchanging, often turbulent economy, and (ii) the frequent managerial misuse of estimates to manipulate financial data. Given the ever-increasing prevalence of estimates in accounting data, whether these opposing forces result in an improvement in the quality of financial information or not is among the most fundamental issues in accounting. We examine in this study the contribution of accounting estimates embedded in accruals to the quality of financial information, as reflected by their usefulness in the prediction of